Forecasting

TL;DR: Once you can read Throughput, you can use it for probabilistic forecasting. Monte Carlo Simulation turns historical completed work into ranges, percentiles, and a better conversation about delivery risk. This is a follow-up to the Throughput article. If you need the foundation first, start with Throughput: the flow metric behind team predictability. Here I will not re-explain the metric. Here we turn historical completed work into a forecast. Now let’s get to the practical question management loves to ask: “When will this project of X items be done?” ...

Over seven years of running Story Points workshops, I’ve seen the same pattern: teams learn the technique, apply it for a few sprints, then gradually drift back to old habits. At my current scale — 47 teams, around 400 people in IT — 60% use Story Points, 40% don’t. What’s interesting: those 60% who do use them do it completely differently. Even 3 months after the training, only 20-30% use Story Points correctly (as intended). The problem isn’t the tool itself, but how we use it and what we expect from it. ...