Forecasting

TL;DR: Forecasting team Throughput is super-easy and much more reliable than traditional methods, if you limit your work in Progress. Reliability confirmed by research data. We’ve already extensively covered Throughput (one of the flow metrics), how to analyze Throughput data from 3 key angles. And why it’s better for forecasting than storypoints. Now let’s get to essentials and practical questions that our management looooves to ask: “When will you guys finish this project of X items”? ...

Over seven years of running Story Points workshops, I’ve seen the same pattern: teams learn the technique, apply it for a few sprints, then gradually drift back to old habits. At my current scale — 47 teams, around 400 people in IT — 60% use Story Points, 40% don’t. What’s interesting: those 60% who do use them do it completely differently. Even 3 months after the training, only 20-30% use Story Points correctly (as intended). The problem isn’t the tool itself, but how we use it and what we expect from it. ...