Monte Carlo Simulation: Forecasting Throughput and Project Timelines
TL;DR: Once you can read Throughput, you can use it for probabilistic forecasting. Monte Carlo Simulation turns historical completed work into ranges, percentiles, and a better conversation about delivery risk. This is a follow-up to the Throughput article. If you need the foundation first, start with Throughput: the flow metric behind team predictability. Here I will not re-explain the metric. Here we turn historical completed work into a forecast. Now let’s get to the practical question management loves to ask: “When will this project of X items be done?” ...